GENERAL BACKGROUND: An economic analysis for Turkey: 

Geographic Variables

Land & Resources

The main area of Turkey, known as Anatolia, is in Asia between the Mediterranean and Black seas. Turkish Thrace in Europe makes up about 3 percent of the country’s area. Turkey has relatively rich agricultural resources and important deposits of lignite, black coal, iron ore, and chromium; some petroleum is found in the southeast (Encyclopedia Encarta, p. 1).

Population

Turkey’s population (1995 estimate) is about 62,032,000. The average population density is about 80 persons per sq. km. About 69% of the people lived in urban areas in the mid-1990s, compared with about 21% in 1950. The highest population concentrations were in Istanbul and in coastal regions (Encyclopedia Encarta, p.2).

History: The Modern Republic of Turkey

The modern Republic of Turkey was founded in 1923 by Mustafa Kemal later Ataturk from a portion of the Ottoman Empire, following the empire’s collapse as a result of World War I (1914-1918). Turkey became a secular state in 1928, and a multiparty political system was established in 1950. Apart from a brief period of government by a military junta in 1960 and 1961, Turkey remained under civilian rule until 1980, when, in a period of political instability, inflation, and acts of terrorism, the military again took control. Civilian rule was restored to Turkey at the end of 1983 (Encyclopedia Encarta, p.1).

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Economic Goals

Since the 1970s, Turkey’s major economic outlook to the future was to integrate the industrial, agricultural and service sectors with the economies of Europe. Today, Turkey is seriously concerned with joining the European Community and becoming an active economic member in the European Union. There are many obstacles to that, especially that Turkey’s economy is not as industrialized and developed as the rest of Europe’s economies. Accordingly, Turkey’s economic goals are in conformity with this vision, that is, seeing Turkey become part of Europe in the coming future. In addition to this, Turkey’s economic goals today are very much influenced by the mistakes and lessons learnt from the past (The Economist, p.31).

Dealing with Crisis

The economy has improved significantly since the 1994 crisis, when the economy experienced a sharp drop and inflation hit triple digits. The crisis – sparked by the downgrading in January 1994 of Turkey’s international credit rating by two US rating agencies – stemmed from years of loose monetary and fiscal policies that let inflation freely increasing, and allowed the public debt, money supply, and current account deficit to explode.

In April 1994, Prime Minister Ciller introduced a stabilization package that paved the way for a $950 million IMF standby loan. In December 1995, and as a result of economic and political unrest, in addition to the failure to meet the conditions of the IMF, the IMF put the loan on hold. Turkey considered the austerity measures imposed by the IMF to be too harsh, especially when they are set at time when the government is facing policies it must implement as part of the Turkey-EU customs union agreement (The Economist, p.31).

This agreement came into force on 1 January 1996 – because many industries are unfit for EU competition and much-needed revenues will decline with the elimination of import tariffs and surcharges. Meanwhile, Ankara’s heavy debt repayment schedule in 1996 makes it necessary for Turkish leaders to increase the confidence of both domestic and foreign investors.

It is inevitable that problems in the economy will continue in 1998 unless necessary measures are taken. This situation will have a detrimental effect on the long-term development strategy of Turkey. In the long run, it is necessary to record an annual growth rate of 4-5% in order to achieve a sustainable development trend in Turkey (The Economist, p.31).

Economic Problems & Indicators

GDP

The high growth rate recorded in the economy in previous years continued in 1997. After a 6.1% contraction in 1994, the Turkish Economy experienced high GNP growth rates in consecutive years. Recovery in the industrial and trade sectors on the supply side, and expansion in domestic demand on the demand side, had a direct impact on this high growth. Expansionary fiscal and monetary policies led to the recovery in domestic demand. Despite the expected contraction in the agricultural sector, the growth structure supported by domestic demand continued in 1997. Increase in credit volume is another factor that affected the high growth experienced in 1997.

The Turkish economy grew by 8% in real terms in 1997. In order to take stabilization measures to remove macro-economic obstacles, cut down public expenditures, and implement tight monetary policies to pull down the inflation rate, GNP growth was targeted at 4% in 1997. However, the results were much better than expected. The GNP growth was recorded at 98.3% with current prices. The real GNP growth which declined by 6.1% in real terms due to the economic crisis in 1994, grew by 8% in 1995, by 7.1% in 1996, and by 8% in 1997. According to the annual economic program, the real GNP growth is expected to be 3% for 1998 (Tables 1-4, Appendix I).

In the first nine months of 1997, consumption expenditures increased in real terms compared to the same period of the previous year. During this period, the private final consumption expenditures rose by 8.8% and the public final consumption expenditures increased by 1.4%. The private final consumption expenditures grew by 8.5% in the first quarter, by 9.2% in the second quarter, and by 8.6% in the third quarter of 1997. On the other hand, although the public final consumption expenditures declined to 3.9% in the first quarter, they increased by 0.6% in the second quarter, and by 5.9% in the third quarter of 1997 (Tables 1-4, Appendix I).

The public Sector

In 1997, the public sector realized 22.7% of the total fixed capital investments. Besides, the private sector realized 77.3% of the total fixed capital investments. Institutions in the consolidated budget realized 42.5% of the fixed capital investments of the public sector, followed by State Owned Enterprises by 22.6%, local governments by 19.1%, and funds by 12.6%.

The Agricultural Sector

The agricultural sector shrank by 1.7% in 1997 compared to the previous year. Decreases particularly in the production of citrus fruits and olives brought about the production decrease. While farming and livestock declined by 2.1% and forestry by 3.7%, fishery increased by 8% in 1997.

The agricultural sector is of great importance in Turkey. Agricultural production is carried out on almost all 28 million hectares of arable land. In Turkey, there are no existing plans regarding land use. Significant decreases occur in agricultural land due to soil erosion and non-agricultural use of the land. In fulfilling the Seed Program, aimed at producing quality seeds, a total of 218.1 million tonnes of wheat and 32.8 million tonnes of barley were produced in 1997.

With respect to livestock existence, Turkey has a significant place in the world. However, it remains far behind the classification regarding output per animal. According to data of 1996, the number of sheep in Turkey reached 33.1 million, goats 9 million, cattle 11.9 million and poultry 158.6 million, respectively. A total of 43.6% cattle and 97.5% sheep existence consist of low productive native races. Artificial fertilization is carried out, aiming to improve animal races. In 1996, a total of 962,000 cattle were fertilized by artificial means. This number was expected to exceed 1 million in 1997.

Only fishery recorded growth in the agricultural sector in 1997. Despite all negative conditions, such as contamination, diseases and parasites, organizational and marketing deficiencies, the fishery sector grew by 8%. The number of fisherman’s shelters which were 131 in 1996 rose to 136 in 1997 (Table 5, Appendix II).

The share of the agricultural sector in GNP decreases gradually in every year. This share which was 15.3% in 1994, 14.4% in 1995, and 14% in 1996 fell to 13.1% in 1997 (Table 5, Appendix II).

Industry

The industrial sector recorded a high growth in 1997. This sector, which declined by 5.7% in 1994, showed an upward trend due to the increasing domestic demand in the second quarter of 1995. The industrial sector grew by 12.3% in 1995, by 6.8% in 1996 and by 10.4% in 1997. The growth of industrial production in the public sector was registered at 3.4% and in the private sector at 14.9% in 1997. The industrial sector is expected to grow by 3.5% in 1998 (Table 6, Appendix II).

In the industrial sector, the manufacturing industry registered the highest growth at 11.4% in 1997. In the same period, the mining and energy (electricity, gas, water) sectors grew by 4.7%, and 5%, respectively.

The share of the industrial sector in GNP was recorded at 28.7% in 1997. The shares of the industrial sub-sectors in GNP in 1997 were: the manufacturing industry with 24.3%, the mining and quarrying sector with 1.4% and the energy sector with 2.9% (Table 6, Appendix II).

The manufacturing industry declined by 7.6% with the impact of economic stabilization measures taken in 1994. The manufacturing industry began to grow due to the economic recovery and an increase in the exports of the industrial products. The production of the manufacturing industry increased by 14.3% in 1995, by 6.7% in 1996 and by 11.4% in 1997. The capacity utilization rates in the manufacturing industry were recorded at 73% in 1994, at 78.6% in 1995, at 78% in 1997, and finally at 79.4% in 1997.

The mining sector began to recover in 1994 as a result of the country’s increasing export opportunities in foreign markets and price increases. The mining sector grew by 3.1% in 1995, by 1.1% in 1996, and 4.7% in 1997 (Table 6, Appendix II).

Construction

The construction sector tended toward recovery in 1995. This trend did not continue in 1996 and the sector shrank by 6.5% due to the decrease experienced in residential construction. According to building usage permits, an increase of 11.3% was registered in the field of construction. In the same period, with current prices, total construction value recorded an increase of 99.5% (Table 7, Appendix II).

In 1997, the number of buildings that received construction permits reached 124,891, a decrease of 1.4% compared to the previous year. According to building usage permits, an increase of 0.7% occurred and the number of buildings, which was 104,776, increased to 105,491 in 1997. Increases in construction area were recorded as 4.1% according to construction permits and as 6.8% according to building usage permits (Table 7, Appendix II).

With 1987 producer prices, the construction sector registered an increase of 4.6% and had a share of 5.7% in GNP in 1997. The growth in this sector was 103.2% according to construction permits and 106.4% according to building usage permits (Table 7, Appendix II).

Services

After a 7.1% contraction in 1994, the services sector recorded a gradual increase in consecutive years. The sector grew by 7.8% in 1995, by 8% in 1996, and by 8.2% in 1997. In 1998 the services sector is expected to grow by 3% due to the stabilization targets set by the government (Table 8, Appendix II).

In the services sectors, trade recorded the largest increase at 11.2% in 1997. The communication and transportation sector grew by 7.2%, financial institutions by 3.2%, house ownership by 2.3%, and self-employed and services by 6.8%. The shares of the services’ sub-sectors in GNP were recorded as follows: trade sector at 21.7%, transportation and communication sector at 12.6%, financial institutions at 2.2%, house ownership at 4.8%, and self-employed and services at 2.2% (Table 8, Appendix II).

Inflation

In spite of the high growth rate recorded in recent years, macro-economic indicators of the Turkish Economy did not show any significant improvements. Inflation rates are still at high levels. The fact that high interest rates and price increases, as well as increase in prices and wages together with agricultural support prices, maintained high levels, affected inflation expectations, which were difficult to overcome. Thus, expectations were negatively influenced by the political uncertainties prevailing in the country. Reforms to be made primarily in the fields of tax and social security were not put into practice in 1997. The new draft tax bill which aims to include unregistered economic activities into the economy and reduce the income tax rates was submitted to the Turkish Grand National Assembly and it is expected to be enacted by the parliament in 1998.

Rapid price increases continued to be the main problem of the Turkish economy in 1997. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) increased by 91% as of December 1997, compared to the same period of the previous year. The average increase in the WPI was recorded at 81.8% in 1997. On the other hand, as of December, 1997, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 99.1% and the average increase of the CPI was registered at 85.7% in 1997 (Table 10, Appendix III).

Unemployment

In 1997, the employable population at the age of 12 or above increased to 47.2 million, growing by 1.1 million. Despite this increase, the total work force declined to 22.4 million, decreasing by 671,000. The rate of participation in the work force, another indicator for work force, was estimated to be 47.4% in 1997. Throughout the country the rate of participation in work force for men decreased from 70.6% to 69.9%, and for women it declined to 25.2% from 29.4%, compared to the same period of the previous year. Women comprise 71% of the unpaid work force. It is estimated that the number of workers employed are 3.9 million in the industrial sector and 8.7 million in the services sector (Turkish Economy Online, p. 3; Table 11, Appendix III).

In addition to the unemployment rate, underemployment is another issue to be taken into consideration in Turkey. Unemployment insurance enables workers to earn their living when they remain unemployed. In countries where unemployment insurance is not applied, people are obliged to work whenever they find employment. This situation reduces the unemployment rate, but it increases underemployment (Turkish Economy Online, p.3).

The rate of underemployment in the work force was registered at 6.1% in October 1997. This rate was 8.7% in 1994, 6.3% in 1995, and 6.2% in 1996. In 1997, the rate of underemployment in cities was 7.1% for men and 4.3% for women in 1997. In rural areas, this rate was 7.9% for men and 1.3% for women. The rate of underemployment in the educated young work force in rural areas was recorded at 9.9%. The number of people who were not included in the work force reached 24.8 million. This constitutes 52.6% of the employable population at the age of 12 or above. Housewives constitute the largest share in population that is not included in the work force. This is followed by students with a share of 20.3%, the disabled with a share of 9.4%, and pensioners with a share of 9.1%. Housewives living in cities constitute 63.3% of women who are not included in the work force (Turkish Economy Online, pp. 3-4).

Capital Markets

Capital markets facilitate the transfer of medium and long term available funds to investments. In 1996, 97.3% of the total security transaction volume of TL 5,435,056.3 billion was composed of public sector securities and the rest belonged to the private sector (Table 22, Appendix IV).

In 1997, the share of public sector securities dropped to 95.9%, with a volume of TL 6,740,407 billion. The volume of transaction for private sector securities was TL 288,188 billion. Within the public sector securities, treasury bills ranked the first in the listing with a volume of TL 4,382,360 billion, and the remainder consisted of government bonds. With a transaction volume of TL 215,470 billion, stocks ranked the first within the private sector securities, and second was attendance certificates with a volume of TL 34,330 billion (Tables 23-25, Appendix IV).

The number of firms being traded on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) rose from 228 in 1996 to 258 at the end of 1997. Also, the transaction volume increased from TL 3,031,185 billion in 1996 to TL 9,048,721 billion (Table 22, Appendix IV).

Exchange Rates

One of the goals of the “Economic Precautions and Application Program” was to stabilize the TL and to expand exports. Devaluation made in the 1994 application period of the stability program enabled the foreign exchanges to follow a stable pace based on supply and demand, while protecting the competitiveness of the economy. Exchange rate policy targets were mostly achieved in 1996 and real exchange rate fluctuations occurred only within a narrow band (Economic Review, p. 1).

In 1995, increases in both USD and Dutch mark remained below the WPI, which rose by 86%. During the same year, the average increase rates were 53.9% for the dollar and 72.7% for the DM. In 1996, the 77.5% average increase of the dollar rate was above, and the 68.5% average increase of the DM rate was below the WPI rise of 75.9% (Table 19, Appendix V).

In real terms, the dollar continued to appreciate in 1997, whereas the DM depreciated, against a WPI increase of 81.8%. During the first eight months of the year, the dollar rate increased more than the WPI; it slowed for the rest of the year and ended with a rise of 86.6%. On the other hand, the DM showed a slow rate of increase during the whole year and resulted in a mere increase of 61.8% in 1997 (Table 19, Appendix V).

The dollar rate against the TL increased from 45,704 in 1995 to 81,136 in 1996 and to 151,430 in 1997. Likewise, the DM rate against the TL rose from 31,945 in 1995 to 53,831 in 1996 and to 87,081 in 1997 (Table 19, Appendix V).

Balance of Trade

Annual examination of Turkish foreign trade reveals no significant differences except for the year 1994. Because of the economic stabilization measures applied on April 5, 1994, domestic market activities were narrowed considerably, and as a result of a decrease in imports by 20.9 %, the foreign trade deficit dropped to $5.2 million and the ratio of exports to imports reached 77.8 % (Table 29, Appendix VI).

Because of an increase in production due to the buoyancy in the industrial sector and suitable international conditions, foreign trade returned to its normal state in 1995. Turkish imports reached $35.7 billion, rising by 53.4 % over that of the previous year. Turkish exports reached $21.6 billion, increasing by 19.5 %. The high rate of growth in imports affected the foreign trade deficit negatively and the deficit ended up as $14.1 billion in 1995 (Table 29, Appendix VI).

Once the Customs Union between Turkey and the EU came into force on January 1, 1996, protections on industrial goods traded with the EU were abolished, and Turkey has begun to apply the EU’s Common Customs Tariff in trade with the other countries. Although this situation partly led to a deterioration in the balance of trade, other merchandise and services income, which includes proceedings of the shuttle trade, prevented the current account balance from deteriorating by the same rate. Turkish exports increased from $23 billion in 1996 to $26.2 billion in 1997, rising by 13 %, and Turkish imports grew to $48 billion, increasing by 11.4 %. Volume of trade was $74.8 billion and the trade deficit was $22.3 billion. While the ratio of exports to imports was 53.2 % in 1996, it increased to 54 % in 1997, due to a contraction in the growth of imports (Economic Review, p. 3; Tables 29-30, Appendix VI).

Export of investment goods increased by 18.9 % in 1997 compared to 1996, reaching $1,314.1 million. Exports of intermediate goods and consumption goods were $11,013.6 million and $13,892.5 million, showing an increase of 13 % and 12.5 % respectively (Table 30, Appendix VI).

The highest growth in Turkish imports was seen in consumption goods. The imports of consumption goods reached $5,335.7 million in 1997, rising by 25 % compared to the previous year. The imports of intermediate goods reached $ 31,782.5 million, increasing by 10.9%, and the imports of investment goods rose to $ 11,076.3 million, growing by 6.9 %, in the same period. The shares of investment, intermediate and consumption goods in total exports in 1997 were 5.0 %, 42.0 % and 53.0% respectively. The imports of intermediate goods with a share of 65.6 % ranked first in Turkish imports. This was followed by investment goods and consumption goods with shares of 22.8% and 11.6% respectively (Table 30, Appendix VI).

Exports

Exports, targeted at $29.5 billion 1997 were not achieved. Turkish exports increased from $23.2 billion in 1996 to $26.2 billion in 1997, growing by 13%.

Exports by sectors improved in favor of the industrial sector after 1980. Exports of industrial goods with a share of 75.3% in total exports, increased by 14.5% over the previous year’s figure, reaching $19.7 million in 1997. No significant increase occurred in the exports of mining products, and exports of this sector amounted to $992 million. Exports of agricultural products rose to $5.4 billion, growing by 10.5 %. The shares of the mining and agricultural sectors in total exports were 3.7% and 20.8% respectively in 1997 (Tables 31-34, Appendix VII).

EU countries have a share of 46.6%. Turkish exports to the EU increased by 5.4% over the previous year, reaching $12 billion. The share of CIS in Turkish exports was 13.4%, Middle East Countries having a share of 8.8%, Turkish Republics 3.5% and EFTA Countries 1.5% in 1997.

The first six countries in terms of exports are Germany, the USA, the Russian Federation, Italy, England and France. Germany, having a share of 20 % in Turkish exports is the most important country for Turkey in terms of foreign trade because of its share in Turkish exports and imports (Table 34, Appendix VII).

Imports

According to the 1997 estimates, imports were forecasted to be $50 billion. However, the level of imports in 1997 fell below the figure predicted though it reached $48.6 billion, an increase of 11.4%. When imports by item is considered, the greatest increase in 1997 was recorded in imports of consumption goods. Consumption goods having a share of 11% in total imports increased by 25% over that of the previous year, reaching $5.3 billion. However, imports of intermediate goods increased by 10.9%, reaching $31.9 billion. The imports of intermediate goods had a 65.6% share of total import. Imports of investment goods increased by 6.9% over that of the previous year, reaching $11.1 billion in 1997 (Tables 35-36, Appendix VIII).

In 1997, industrial goods had a share of 72.3% in total imports, increased by 14.7% and reaching $31.1 billion. Imports of mining goods, having a 17.3% share in total imports, decreased by 4.2% in 1997, compared to that of the previous year. Imports in the mining sector were $8.4 billion, whereas imports in the agricultural sector were recorded as $4.9 billion in 1997. The import of agricultural products, having a 10.2 % share in total imports, increased by 1.3% over its level in 1996 (Table 35, Appendix VIII).

The main Turkish import items in 1997 were boilers, machines and mechanical equipment, mineral oils, electrical machines and equipment, iron-steel and spare auto parts (Table 36, Appendix VIII).

Imports from the EU had a share of 52% in total imports in 1997. Imports from the EU were $22.7 billion in 1996, and rose by 5.8%, reaching $21 billion. The share of the EFTA countries in Turkish imports was 2.7%, Middle East countries’ share was 5.8%, and the Commonwealth of Independent States’ share was 7.2%. The first six countries in Turkish imports were Germany, Italy, the U.S., France, England and the Russian Federation (Tables 37-38, Appendix VIII).

Corruption

Corruption in the Turkish bureaucracy remains a major problem that needs to be addressed by the government. The size of losses resulting from such corruption is enormous, and many foreign investors are often intimidated by high degrees of corruption that make legal standards and practices hostage to bribery and influence. In 1994, one of the factors that led to the economic instability was the withdrawal of foreign investment from the economy as a result of corruption. As a result, the consecutive Turkish governments have attempted to bring this problem under control. Nonetheless, little has been achieved so far. Curbing corruption remains one of the major conditions set by the IMF as part of reforms in the Turkish bureaucracy and economy (The Economist, p. 42).

Monetary Policy

In monetary policy practices of 1997, priority was given to the stability in monetary markets and the control of excessive fluctuations in exchange rates, rather than taking inflation under control. The Central Bank in 1996 and 1997, frequently performed open market operations. The protocol, dated July 30, 1997 and signed between the Under-secretariat of Treasury and the Central Bank, is an important development in preventing ruptures between the two institutions, in the application of monetary policies. According to this protocol, the application of all kinds of monetary policies will be performed by the Treasury only after prior notification of the Central Bank. In addition to this, the Central Bank will be authorized in determining short-term interest rates and the Treasury will be informed about credit approvals to public institutions and establishments (Economic Review, p.5).

The economic growth in 1997 also led to an expansion in credit demand in real terms. Beginning in March, interest rates started to increase due to political ambiguity. The Treasury developed a new borrowing method based on CPI, with a maturity of two years, and used this intensely. This development enabled them to increase maturity in borrowing. The Treasury also started a redemption policy in August, in order to adjust its domestic debt repayments according to its cash position and liquidity of the market. Starting in September, the Treasury prepared monthly borrowing programs and announced them to the public (Economic Review, p. 5).

FUTURE POTENTIALS FOR TURKEY

Turkey Inside the European Union

So far, Turkey has not succeeded to join the European Union for a number of reasons. First of all, the dispute with Greece over the future of Cyprus remains one of the most serious impediments that makes the EU reluctant in approving Turkey’s membership in the Union. Secondly, Turkey’s democratization process has been very slow and the human rights record in this country has not improved significantly in recent years, which means that criticism will continue to flow from European countries against Turkey. In addition to this, and despite the positive economic growth, Turkey has not been able to meet the economic criteria set by the EU, something which makes it even more difficult for Turkey to be accepted in the integration of European nations. Corruption continues to remain a factor that needs to be addressed as well as the need to reorganize public expenditures. All these factors make it difficult for Turkey to join the European club. On the other hand, there are a number of positive factors. First of all, Europe has reflected on various occasions that it takes into consideration Turkey’s situation and therefore, is willing to give Turkey more time in order to improve its efforts and reflect a faster progress that will put Turkey on an equal level with other European nations. In addition to this, Turkey’s fast economic growth after the reforms of 1994 seems to be positively received in the European circles, meaning that Turkey might still have the chance to join the European club in the coming few years.

Turkey Outside the European Union

Although the governments of Turkey have been enthusiastic about joining the European Union, many voices can still be heard against this trend. Apart from worries over the political sovereignty of the Turks, these are even more worried about the economic problems that Turkey will eventually face once it becomes a member. First of all, Turkey is still considered to be one of the least developed countries of Europe, and therefore, once it joins the EU, it will be under continuous pressures to maintain the required levels of growth, inflation, unemployment, interest rates and money supplies. Given the poor records of Turkish economic control, this might be a very time and effort consuming process.

Yet, the more pressing problem that the Turks are worried about is the economic loss that Turkey would have to go through upon joining the EU. Most of Turkey’s exports are imported by European countries. In addition to this, many of its imports are from European countries. Upon joining the European Union, Turkey will lose a lot of income from Tariffs and taxes on its products and on imported products, which means that the treasury is going to suffer seriously. In the absence of resources and alternatives, this could results in a major financial crisis for the government.

Add to this, Turkey will be flooded with competitive goods that will make the development of its industrial and agricultural sectors difficult, even though Turkey so far enjoys a cheaper labor in contrast to the rest of Europe, but this advantage is not expected to persist for long.

CONCLUSION

Since 1994, Turkey has taken major steps towards economic revival and reform. The change has been positive and appreciated, but loopholes still exist, and the state has much to accomplish before it can give a sigh of relief. Turkey’s economic problems are closely related to other social and political problems as well. A few of these include the security issue Kurds, poverty, the underdeveloped industrial and agricultural sectors, corruption, with the bureaucracy, political conflicts in the state, the Islamic fundamental movements, the military establishment, the conflict over Cyprus, and of course, the EU membership. All these factors form a network that will inevitably influence the Turkish economy in one way or another. These challenges have to be addressed by the state while at the same time, a careful examination of opportunities and threats should be always held in mind. Turkey’s move in the twentieth century was very difficult yet revolutionary at the same time. At the verge of the twenty-first century, Turkey might just need the same power, enthusiasm and momentum to reform its economy and resolve its problems and conflicts.

REFERENCES

“Turkey.” Encyclopedia Encarta97. New York: Microsoft Incorporation, 1998.

“Country Outlook: Turkey.” The Economist. June 12, 1996, p. 31.

“Turkey: Economic Review.” www.yahoo.com/turkey/economy/review.com

Turkish Economy Online. www.altavista.com/Turkisheconomy/tables

“Turkey: Corruption.” The Economist, September 11, 1996, p.42.

“Turkey: Economy; business; government.” www.excite.com/turkey/economy.com